1252 Sheppard Dr SW

Mountain Park, GA 30047

$355,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,900 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,297/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,862
• Tax + insurance: −$228
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-275/mo
• Annual: $-3,305/yr
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.32%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $99,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $355k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-275 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (35.3% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($350k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $230k (35.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#54 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Trickum Middle School (math 32% / reading 41%, grade F, #167 of 470 statewide, top 38%, 2,148 students, 52% FRL); Parkview High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #243 of 424 statewide, top 59%, 3,262 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Gwinnett County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 347 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $134k; list at $355k implies a 165% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.0% in Mountain Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.