111 Little Round Top Ln

Townsend, TN 37882

$495,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 131 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,700/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax + insurance: −$825
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$777
• Net cashflow: $-540/mo
• Annual: $-6,478/yr
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.67%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $138,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $495k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-540 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $417k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $370k (25.3% below list).
• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $370k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#88 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Blount County (rural): math 29% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #52 of 139 in TN (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Townsend Elementary (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #601 of 952 statewide, top 66%, 108 students, 0% FRL); Heritage Middle School (math 25% / reading 28%, grade F, #135 of 333 statewide, top 43%, 665 students, 0% FRL); Heritage High School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #112 of 332 statewide, top 35%, 1,198 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 44% district-wide (44 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 937 units permitted in Blount County in 2024 (57 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Blount County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $79k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$85k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 0.7% in Townsend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.