3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,848 sqft ·
Built 1997
· Manufactured
· Active
· 47 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,581/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,809
Tax + insurance
−$274
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$332
Net cashflow
$-833/mo
Annual
$-9,998/yr
Cap rate
3.39%
Cash-on-cash
-10.35%
DSCR
0.54
1% rule
0.46%
Cash to close
$96,572
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $345k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-833 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (42.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (54.2% below list).
It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $158k (54.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, commute F.
Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Douglas El (math 45% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 585 students, 97% FRL); Tyler H S (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,164 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 66% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-8Z7DKZCE51N1HW
· Data 1 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29