133 33RD St Unit 3M

Union City, NJ 07087

$299,000C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 554 sqft · Built 1966 · Condo · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,675/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$358
• HOA: −$231
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-44/mo
• Annual: $-529/yr
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.63%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-529/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (10.5% below list).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $268k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#117 in NJ, #2,998 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living F.
• Union City School District (suburban): math 15% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #399 of 472 in NJ (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: George Washington Elementary School (math 10% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,012 of 1,303 statewide, top 79%, 779 students, 90% FRL); Union Hill Middle School (math 18% / reading 40%, grade F, #321 of 431 statewide, top 77%, 849 students, 91% FRL); Union City High School (math 12% / reading 35%, grade F, #331 of 399 statewide, top 83%, 3,025 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools at 88% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 228 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.3% in Union City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,675/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 6042% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.