5 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,809 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 37 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,485/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,752
Tax + insurance
−$557
HOA
−$92
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$522
Net cashflow
$-437/mo
Annual
$-5,246/yr
Cap rate
4.72%
Cash-on-cash
-5.61%
DSCR
0.75
1% rule
0.74%
Cash to close
$93,520
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $334k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-437 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (18.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (25.6% below list).
It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $248k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#261 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Schertz-Cibolo-U City ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #152 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Cibolo Valley El (math 36% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 761 students, 33% FRL); Dobie J H (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 1,347 students, 31% FRL); Byron P Steele Ii H S (math 68% / reading 66%, grade B, #163 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 2,716 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 761 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.3% in Cibolo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-8ZHY7B5X4AEY46
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29