2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
660 sqft ·
Built 1971
· Condo
· Active
· 123 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,871/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,358
Tax + insurance
−$448
HOA
−$400
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,023
Net cashflow
$1,641/mo
Annual
$19,697/yr
Cap rate
13.90%
Cash-on-cash
27.16%
DSCR
2.21
1% rule
1.88%
Cash to close
$72,520
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $259k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $259k).
It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $228k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#177 in FL, #2,724 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-1.8% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 1.9% in Miami — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,871/mo this rent would consume 96% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 5231% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
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