9688 Turning Point Dr Unit B

Short Pump, VA 23059

$381,335D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,345 sqft · Built 2026 · Condo · Pending · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,850/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,000
• Tax + insurance: −$636
• HOA: −$235
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $-619/mo
• Annual: $-7,427/yr
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.96%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $106,774

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $381k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-619 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (23.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (25.3% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $285k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#3 in VA, #79 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rivers Edge Elementary (math 85% / reading 90%, grade A+, #34 of 1,108 statewide, top 3%, 748 students, 9% FRL); Holman Middle (math 62% / reading 72%, grade A-, #103 of 342 statewide, top 31%, 850 students, 39% FRL); Deep Run High (math 72% / reading 95%, grade A, #30 of 319 statewide, top 10%, 2,027 students, 14% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 79% at this address vs 56% district-wide (+23 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Henrico County Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.3% in Short Pump — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.