242 W 3rd St

Mount Carmel, PA 17851

$72,000B-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,288 sqft · Built 1920 · Other · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,450/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $675/mo
• Annual: $8,105/yr
• Cap rate: 17.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.20%
• DSCR: 2.79
• 1% rule: 2.01%
• Cash to close: $20,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $72k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $675 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($498 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#641 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, commute F, employment F.
• Mount Carmel Area SD (town): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #455 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 17.6% vs local median 12.2% in Mount Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.