140 Boracay Cir

St Johns, FL 32259

$309,000F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,750 sqft · Built 2021 · Townhouse · Active · 407 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,519/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax + insurance: −$684
• HOA: −$717
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-1,031/mo
• Annual: $-12,374/yr
• Cap rate: 2.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.30%
• DSCR: 0.36
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $86,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $309k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (56.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (18.5% below list).
• It's been on market 407 days — a 12% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $133k (56.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Palencia Elementary School (math 82% / reading 80%, grade A+, #95 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 781 students, 15% FRL); Pacetti Bay Middle School (math 77% / reading 72%, grade A, #40 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 1,443 students, 18% FRL); Allen D Nease Senior High School (math 72% / reading 78%, grade A-, #40 of 667 statewide, top 6%, 2,214 students, 4% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1301 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 109d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 407 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.