3809 W 30th St

Los Angeles, CA 90016

$1,180,000D

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 5,213 sqft · Built 1931 · MultiFamily · Active · 283 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,804/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,188
• Tax + insurance: −$1,967
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,059
• Net cashflow: $-410/mo
• Annual: $-4,915/yr
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.49%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $330,400

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $1.18M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-410 ($-5k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-205/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.12M (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $980k (16.9% below list).
• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.04M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $980k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $35k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#273 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Los Angeles Unified (urban): math 29% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #223 of 517 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Virginia Road Elementary (214 students, 94% FRL); Johnnie Cochran Jr. Middle (545 students, 99% FRL); Valley Academy of Arts And Sciences (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 868 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 67% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 150 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $1.18M implies a 2384% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.1% in Los Angeles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $9,804/mo this rent would consume 160% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 3450% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?