304 14th St NW #106

Long Beach, WA 98631

$39,950B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 682 sqft · Built 1974 · Condo · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,533/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax + insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$587
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $348/mo
• Annual: $4,174/yr
• Cap rate: 16.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.31%
• DSCR: 2.66
• 1% rule: 3.84%
• Cash to close: $11,186

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $348 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#133 in WA, #2,635 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A-, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Ocean Beach School District (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #212 of 291 in WA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Long Beach Elementary School (221 students, 80% FRL); Ilwaco High School (296 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 56% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Pacific County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pacific County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 2.8% in Long Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.