12530 S 206th St

Gretna, NE 68028

$379,990D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,191 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,565/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-185/mo
• Annual: $-2,219/yr
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.09%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $106,132

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $346k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (32.5% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $257k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#13 in NE, #1,227 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gretna Public Schools (suburban): math 64% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #6 of 111 in NE (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Gretna Elementary School (math 63% / reading 70%, grade B+, #74 of 502 statewide, top 15%, 463 students, 13% FRL); Gretna Middle School (math 60% / reading 57%, grade B, #21 of 128 statewide, top 17%, 728 students, 14% FRL); Gretna High School (math 63% / reading 64%, grade B-, #37 of 261 statewide, top 14%, 1,729 students, 11% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 530 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,612 units permitted in Sarpy County in 2024 (364 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarpy County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.5% in Gretna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.