159 S Shasta

Willows, CA 95988

$349,000F

10 bd · 6.0 ba · 2,085 sqft · Built 1952 · MultiFamily · Active · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,050/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax + insurance: −$456
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-667/mo
• Annual: $-7,999/yr
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.19%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $97,720

Investor read

• This is a 10-bed/6.0-bath multifamily listed at $349k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-667 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (33.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (41.3% below list).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (41.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#882 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Willows Unified (town): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #439 of 517 in CA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 108 units permitted in Glenn County in 2024 (61 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Glenn County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $195k; list at $349k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.0% in Willows — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.