30 Guernsey Ln

Springs, NY 11937

$3,485,000D

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,300 sqft · Built 2017 · SingleFamily · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $25,188/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$18,276
• Tax + insurance: −$2,603
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,289
• Net cashflow: $-980/mo
• Annual: $-11,759/yr
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $975,800

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $3.48M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-980 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $3.31M (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.52M (27.7% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($3.43M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.52M (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $24k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $105k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Springs Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #239 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Springs School (math 55% / reading 60%, grade C+, #839 of 2,108 statewide, top 40%, 689 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $388k; list at $3.48M implies a 799% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 11.1% in Springs — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $25,188/mo this rent would consume 233% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.