1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
504 sqft ·
Built 1986
· Condo
· Active
· 11 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,176/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$471
Tax + insurance
−$150
HOA
−$620
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$247
Net cashflow
$-313/mo
Annual
$-3,752/yr
Cap rate
2.12%
Cash-on-cash
-14.90%
DSCR
0.34
1% rule
1.31%
Cash to close
$25,172
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-313 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $45k (50.3% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $45k (50.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Robles Elementary School (math 18% / reading 16%, grade F, #2,121 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 604 students, 89% FRL); Sligh Middle School (math 16% / reading 22%, grade F, #564 of 571 statewide, top 99%, 606 students, 84% FRL); King High School (math 25% / reading 46%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 1,422 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 52% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: HOA is 53% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 409 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 69d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 2.1% vs local median 2.8% in Tampa — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-91B1Q2BTZ5TWBJ
· Data 5 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29