12871 Briarlake Dr #103

Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33418

$285,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Built 1981 · Condo · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,448/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax + insurance: −$564
• HOA: −$828
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$724
• Net cashflow: $-163/mo
• Annual: $-1,954/yr
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.45%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $79,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (10.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $256k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#464 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marsh Pointe Elementary (math 85% / reading 85%, grade A+, #35 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 835 students, 16% FRL); Watson B. Duncan Middle School (math 54% / reading 59%, grade B, #171 of 571 statewide, top 30%, 1,157 students, 41% FRL); William T. Dwyer High School (math 36% / reading 58%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,206 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 52% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 544 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($125k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.