15871 Lucas Bottoms Rd

Mansfield, AR 72927

$1D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,256 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,286/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$0
• Tax + insurance: −$0
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $1,016/mo
• Annual: $12,186/yr
• Cap rate: 1218652.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 4352306.10%
• DSCR: 193654.13
• 1% rule: 128550.00%
• Cash to close: $0

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $1).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $0 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $0 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#255 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mansfield School District (rural): math 37% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #110 of 238 in AR (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mansfield Elementary School (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #254 of 454 statewide, top 59%, 302 students, 72% FRL); Mansfield Middle School (math 44% / reading 35%, grade F, #92 of 201 statewide, top 50%, 219 students, 73% FRL); Mansfield High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #142 of 292 statewide, top 53%, 254 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 50% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP.
• Scott County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $0 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.