2851 NE 183rd St Unit 502E

Aventura, FL 33160

$323,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,666 sqft · Built 1974 · Condo · Active · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,335/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,694
• Tax + insurance: −$732
• HOA: −$1,089
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$910
• Net cashflow: $-90/mo
• Annual: $-1,077/yr
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.47%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 1.34%
• Cash to close: $90,440

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $323k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (4.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $323k).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $304k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#127 in FL, #1,834 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, health & safety A+, amenities A; Watch: crime D+, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1870 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $199k; list at $323k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.6% in Aventura — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,335/mo this rent would consume 78% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 3106% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.