48234 N 513th Ave

Aguila, AZ 85320

$549,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,032 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Active · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,879
• Tax + insurance: −$410
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $561/mo
• Annual: $6,731/yr
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.38%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $153,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $549k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $561 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (8.9% below list).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($516k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $500k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#256 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Aguila Elementary District (4249) (rural): math 45% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #215 of 501 in AZ (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Aguila Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #505 of 1,109 statewide, top 47%, 123 students, 98% FRL).
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $148k; list at $549k implies a 270% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $154k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.