4452 Abby Creek Ln

Indianapolis city (balance), IN 46205

$133,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,146 sqft · Built 1973 · Condo · Pending · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,309/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$697
• Tax + insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$242
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-5/mo
• Annual: $-56/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $37,240

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $133k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-56/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (1.6% below list).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $920 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Indianapolis Public Schools (urban): math 14% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #286 of 301 in IN (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Center For Inquiry School 84 (math 64% / reading 69%, grade B+, #65 of 994 statewide, top 7%, 469 students, 8% FRL); H L Harshman Middle School (math 3% / reading 16%, grade F, #316 of 330 statewide, top 96%, 549 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 77% district-wide (31 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 17% district-wide (+21 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Indianapolis Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 317 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,906 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $92k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.4% in Indianapolis city (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?