77 N Phillips Ave

Remsenburg-Speonk, NY 11972

$899,999B+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,827 sqft · Built 1991 · Other · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $15,598/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,720
• Tax + insurance: −$1,213
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,276
• Net cashflow: $6,390/mo
• Annual: $76,679/yr
• Cap rate: 14.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.43%
• DSCR: 2.35
• 1% rule: 1.73%
• Cash to close: $252,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $900k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($77k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $900k).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($886k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $886k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eastport-South Manor CSD (suburban): math 62% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #147 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $740k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $252k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 6.4% in Remsenburg-Speonk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.