1810 Padbury Ave SE

Roanoke, VA 24014

$138,058C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 501 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Active · 258 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,246/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $127/mo
• Annual: $1,528/yr
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.95%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $38,656

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (9.7% below list).
• It's been on market 258 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#163 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities C-, employment D, crime F.
• Roanoke City Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #102 of 131 in VA (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Garden City Elementary (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #650 of 1,108 statewide, top 62%, 304 students, 98% FRL); John P. Fishwick Middle (math 33% / reading 60%, grade D+, #264 of 342 statewide, top 77%, 501 students, 98% FRL); Patrick Henry High (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 2,005 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 67% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 113 units permitted in Roanoke city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Roanoke County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.2% in Roanoke — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 258 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.