Clayton Blazer (Independence Hill) Plan

Morristown, TN 37814

$78,995F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,034 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 227 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,507/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,092
• Tax + insurance: −$347
• HOA: −$630
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-879/mo
• Annual: $-10,542/yr
• Cap rate: 1.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.08%
• DSCR: 0.20
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $58,301

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-879 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#175 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Hamblen County (urban): math 31% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #57 of 139 in TN (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price; HOA is 42% of rent.
• Market conditions: 330 active listings in the ZIP; 298 units permitted in Hamblen County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.2% vs local median 2.9% in Morristown — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?