8180 Spyglass Dr

West Palm Beach, FL 33412

$549,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,366 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,674/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,879
• Tax + insurance: −$1,289
• HOA: −$502
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,191
• Net cashflow: $-188/mo
• Annual: $-2,252/yr
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $153,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $549k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-188 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $516k (6.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $549k).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($533k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $516k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#75 in FL, #1,255 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $66k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $295k; list at $549k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.8% in West Palm Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,674/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 81% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.