5775 S Camino Del Sol #5202

Green Valley, AZ 85622

$159,000D

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,652 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Active · 288 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,151/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$265
• HOA: −$1,407
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-807/mo
• Annual: $-9,681/yr
• Cap rate: 0.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -21.74%
• DSCR: 0.03
• 1% rule: 1.35%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $159k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-807 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $42k (73.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• It's been on market 288 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $42k (73.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $262 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 65% of rent.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 58d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 0.2% vs local median 4.7% in Green Valley — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 288 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 73% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.