42 bd · 7.0 ba ·
5,822 sqft ·
Built 1904
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 87 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$38,209/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$30,390
Tax + insurance
−$6,686
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$8,024
Net cashflow
$-6,890/mo
Annual
$-82,681/yr
Cap rate
4.87%
Cash-on-cash
-5.10%
DSCR
0.77
1% rule
0.66%
Cash to close
$1,622,600
Investor read
This is a 7 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $5.79M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7k ($-83k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-984/mo.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $4.58M (21.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.82M (34.1% below list).
It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($5.45M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $3.82M (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $514k of equity ($40k loan paydown + $474k appreciation (8.2% local appreciation)).
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Lilienthal (Claire) Elementary (669 students, 19% FRL); Giannini (A.P.) Middle (1,192 students, 34% FRL); Lowell High (2,632 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1904 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 61 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $3.80M; list at $5.79M implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$823k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $38,209/mo this rent would consume 210% of the median local household income ($219k/yr) (locally 883% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1904 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
CashFlowRE · CFR-94140S16G2MVM3
· Data 14 min agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29