108 Blue Cedar Cir

Shawnee, OK 74804

$149,999F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 2022 · Manufactured · Pending · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $971/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$74
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $-245/mo
• Annual: $-2,943/yr
• Cap rate: 4.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.01%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-245 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $107k (28.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (35.3% below list).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (35.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#217 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Dale (rural): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #76 of 270 in OK (top 28%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dale Es (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #311 of 845 statewide, top 40%, 393 students, 0% FRL); Dale Ms (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #97 of 345 statewide, top 31%, 180 students, 0% FRL); Dale Hs (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #48 of 447 statewide, top 14%, 192 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 30% district-wide (30 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 395 active listings in the ZIP; 183 units permitted in Pottawatomie County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pottawatomie County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $150k implies a 711% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?