3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,297 sqft ·
Built 2021
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 4 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,098/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,285
Tax + insurance
−$579
HOA
−$40
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$441
Net cashflow
$-246/mo
Annual
$-2,955/yr
Cap rate
5.09%
Cash-on-cash
-4.31%
DSCR
0.81
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$68,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-246 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (17.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (14.4% below list).
Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $202k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#158 in TX, #4,292 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: John & Barbara Roderick El (678 students, 52% FRL); Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 36% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1569 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.2% in Royse City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-948NHQCR02H036
· Data 14 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29