7727 39th Ave N

St. Petersburg, FL 33709

$136,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 630 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Active · 244 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,508/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$713
• Tax + insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$384
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $-60/mo
• Annual: $-724/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.90%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $38,080

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $136k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-724/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (7.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $136k).
• It's been on market 244 days — a 12% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $940 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 311 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.6% in St. Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 244 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?