2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,026 sqft ·
Built 1970
· Condo
· Active
· 165 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,135/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$367
Tax + insurance
−$116
HOA
−$225
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$238
Net cashflow
$189/mo
Annual
$2,267/yr
Cap rate
9.54%
Cash-on-cash
11.58%
DSCR
1.52
1% rule
1.62%
Cash to close
$19,572
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Park Place El (math 39% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,651 of 4,322 statewide, top 39%, 735 students, 94% FRL); Ortiz Middle (math 16% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,407 of 1,662 statewide, top 86%, 871 students, 97% FRL); Chavez H S (math 26% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,272 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 50 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: ceiling fan
— light switches visible
Minor: light switches
— light switches visible
CashFlowRE · CFR-94TX3E77XNJZCB
· Data 7 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29