34463 S Corral Dr

Red Rock, AZ 85145

$209,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Active · 112 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,697/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$255
• HOA: −$89
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-100/mo
• Annual: $-1,197/yr
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.04%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (18.8% below list).
• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $106 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#173 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Union High School District (4454) (town): math 11% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #382 of 501 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Red Rock Elementary School (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #673 of 1,109 statewide, top 61%, 445 students, 34% FRL); Santa Cruz Valley Union High School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #230 of 381 statewide, top 61%, 340 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in Red Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.