3221 138th Pl

Largo, FL 33771

$275,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,258/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$324
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $18/mo
• Annual: $218/yr
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($218/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (17.9% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $226k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#82 in FL, #1,240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southern Oak Elementary School (math 63% / reading 49%, grade C+, #832 of 2,144 statewide, top 40%, 556 students, 61% FRL); Largo Middle School (math 38% / reading 35%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 882 students, 66% FRL); Largo High School (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 2,055 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 225 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $275k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.3% in Largo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,258/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 1243% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.