5415 S Doyle Ter

Homosassa Springs, FL 34446

$163,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1982 · Manufactured · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,004/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$855
• Tax + insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $617/mo
• Annual: $7,405/yr
• Cap rate: 10.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.23%
• DSCR: 1.72
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $45,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $163k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $617 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $163k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($161k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $161k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#391 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lecanto Primary School (math 55% / reading 53%, grade C, #936 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 820 students, 63% FRL); Lecanto High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,630 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 582 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $163k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 5.9% in Homosassa Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.