377 Oregon St

Weed, CA 96094

$149,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,645/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$203
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $315/mo
• Annual: $3,780/yr
• Cap rate: 9.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.97%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $315 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,282 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Weed Union Elementary (town): math 20% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #1,187 of 1,400 in CA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Weed Elementary (323 students, 78% FRL); Weed High (math 15% / reading 44%, grade F, #723 of 1,170 statewide, top 64%, 195 students, 50% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 278 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 50 units permitted in Siskiyou County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Siskiyou County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $149k implies a 184% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.7% in Weed — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.