46 Packards Rd Unit 405- Week 28

Waterville Valley, NH 03215

$450C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 420 sqft · Built 1967 · Condo · Active · 256 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2
• Tax + insurance: −$1
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $1,132/mo
• Annual: $13,580/yr
• Cap rate: 3024.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 10777.72%
• DSCR: 480.55
• 1% rule: 333.27%
• Cash to close: $126

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $450.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $450).
• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($396) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $396 (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $32 of equity ($4 loan paydown + $28 appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waterville Valley School District (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #98 of 171 in NH (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $126 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.