1476 County Route 5

East Nassau, NY 12029

$449,000A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,324 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 238 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax + insurance: −$796
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,100
• Net cashflow: $4,750/mo
• Annual: $56,999/yr
• Cap rate: 18.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.34%
• DSCR: 3.02
• 1% rule: 2.23%
• Cash to close: $125,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($57k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $449k).
• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($395k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $395k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,099 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Chatham Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #353 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $146k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $285k; list at $449k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 19.0% vs local median 2.1% in East Nassau — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.