4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,267 sqft ·
Built 1963
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 53 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,773/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,828
Tax + insurance
−$1,655
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,212
Net cashflow
$-922/mo
Annual
$-11,067/yr
Cap rate
4.78%
Cash-on-cash
-5.41%
DSCR
0.76
1% rule
0.79%
Cash to close
$204,372
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $730k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-922 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $567k (22.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $577k (20.9% below list).
It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($708k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $567k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#111 in NY, #1,835 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
Clarkstown Central School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #66 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Link Elementary School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 370 students, 17% FRL); Felix Festa Achievement Middle School (math 57% / reading 77%, grade A-, #101 of 729 statewide, top 15%, 640 students, 19% FRL); Clarkstown South Senior High School (math 100% / reading 90%, grade A+, #93 of 1,100 statewide, top 10%, 1,345 students, 16% FRL).
Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 429 units permitted in Rockland County in 2024 (231 in 5+ unit buildings).
Rockland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $400k; list at $730k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.8% in New City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-98NH14F06JAG42
· Data 11 min agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29