1193 NW Victoria Ave

Port Charlotte, FL 33948

$279,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,619 sqft · Built 2024 · Land · Pending · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,495/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$929
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-426/mo
• Annual: $-5,111/yr
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-426 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (26.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (10.9% below list).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#655 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Meadow Park Elementary School (math 61% / reading 56%, grade B-, #735 of 2,144 statewide, top 35%, 701 students, 59% FRL); Port Charlotte High School (math 23% / reading 38%, grade F, #434 of 667 statewide, top 66%, 1,649 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 953 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.4% in Port Charlotte — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,495/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 501% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.