4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
3,117 sqft ·
Built 1977
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 81 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,378/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$839
Tax + insurance
−$693
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$289
Net cashflow
$-444/mo
Annual
$-5,323/yr
Cap rate
6.16%
Cash-on-cash
-0.46%
DSCR
0.98
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$44,800
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $160k. Condition is rated average.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-444 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $96k (40.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (13.9% below list).
It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $96k (40.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#784 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
Edinburg CISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #699 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Guerra El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 509 students, 91% FRL); Edinburg North H S (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,672 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 62% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 713 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.0% in Edinburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Moderate: kitchen cabinets
— dated and worn
Minor: bathroom fixtures
— standard and functional
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· Data 2 months agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29