5461 Paschal Park

New Braunfels, TX 78132

$307,999D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,142 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,604/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,615
• Tax + insurance: −$513
• HOA: −$56
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $-128/mo
• Annual: $-1,533/yr
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.78%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $86,240

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $308k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (15.5% below list).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $260k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oak Creek El (math 53% / reading 57%, grade C, #602 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 765 students, 37% FRL); Church Hill Middle (math 64% / reading 60%, grade B+, #134 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 748 students, 29% FRL); Canyon H S (math 59% / reading 65%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,348 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 1136 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $62k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.3% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.