448 N College St

Ridgely, TN 38080

$129,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,267 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Pending · 176 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,055/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $44/mo
• Annual: $532/yr
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.46%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($532/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (18.8% below list).
• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#272 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake County (rural): math 11% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #135 of 139 in TN (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Margaret Newton Elementary (210 students, 0% FRL); Lara Kendall Elementary (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #242 of 333 statewide, top 74%, 340 students, 0% FRL); Lake Co High School (math 5% / reading 24%, grade F, #237 of 332 statewide, top 75%, 199 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 71% district-wide (71 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $130k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.