5917 Pine Cone Ln

Tyler, TX 75707

$450,000F

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,950 sqft · Built 2007 · MultiFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,215/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$652
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-1,263/mo
• Annual: $-15,150/yr
• Cap rate: 2.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.02%
• DSCR: 0.46
• 1% rule: 0.49%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (49.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (50.8% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $221k (50.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Whitehouse ISD (suburban): math 68% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #38 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mozelle Brown El (math 52% / reading 50%, grade C-, #818 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 612 students, 57% FRL); Whitehouse J H (math 65% / reading 53%, grade B, #181 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 776 students, 49% FRL); Whitehouse H S (math 71% / reading 69%, grade B+, #116 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,532 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.