59 Irish Ln

East Islip, NY 11730

$550,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1875 · SingleFamily · Active · 319 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,654/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax + insurance: −$773
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$767
• Net cashflow: $-770/mo
• Annual: $-9,244/yr
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.00%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $154,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $550k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-770 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $414k (24.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $365k (33.6% below list).
• It's been on market 319 days — a 12% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $365k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#172 in NY, #2,674 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• East Islip Union Free School District (suburban): math 68% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #110 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: John F Kennedy Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 450 students, 22% FRL); East Islip Middle School (math 50% / reading 67%, grade B, #178 of 729 statewide, top 25%, 804 students, 22% FRL); East Islip High School (math 96% / reading 98%, grade A+, #53 of 1,100 statewide, top 5%, 1,145 students, 25% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1875 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $380k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.7% in East Islip — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 319 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1875 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.