15 Spotted Fawn Ct

Big Sky, MT 59716

$975,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,844 sqft · Built 2004 · Condo · Active · 336 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,113
• Tax + insurance: −$734
• HOA: −$1,246
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $-3,143/mo
• Annual: $-37,722/yr
• Cap rate: 2.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.82%
• DSCR: 0.39
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $273,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $975k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-38k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $420k (57.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (48.7% below list).
• It's been on market 336 days — a 12% lower offer ($858k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $420k (57.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $88k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $82k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#113 in MT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute D-.
• Big Sky School K-12 (rural): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #17 of 116 in MT (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ophir Elementary School (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #82 of 293 statewide, top 33%, 216 students, 0% FRL); Ophir 7-8 (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D+, #37 of 146 statewide, top 26%, 98 students, 0% FRL); Lone Peak High School (math 70% / reading 70%, grade B, #2 of 132 statewide, top 1%, 118 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: 261 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,706 units permitted in Gallatin County in 2024 (533 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gallatin County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $124k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$141k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 336 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.