914 Chardonnay Ln

Lewiston, MI 49756

$61,500F

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,000 sqft · Built 2005 · Condo · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,451/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$323
• Tax + insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$908
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $-187/mo
• Annual: $-2,242/yr
• Cap rate: 2.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.02%
• DSCR: 0.42
• 1% rule: 2.36%
• Cash to close: $17,220

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath condo listed at $62k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-187 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $62k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $61k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $425 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#479 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Johannesburg-Lewiston Area Schools (rural): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #257 of 540 in MI (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 63% of rent.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Oscoda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oscoda County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 3.7% in Lewiston — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: Exterior siding — Weathered and discoloration
• Minor: Carpeted floors — Slight wear