9538 Hazelton

Detroit, MI 48239

$170,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,285/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-3/mo
• Annual: $-39/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-39/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (24.4% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $128k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• South Redford School District (suburban): math 11% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #455 of 540 in MI (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Vandenberg Elementary School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,230 of 1,397 statewide, top 91%, 279 students, 82% FRL); John D Pierce Middle School (math 8% / reading 29%, grade F, #432 of 493 statewide, top 88%, 602 students, 68% FRL); Lee M Thurston High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #582 of 713 statewide, top 83%, 883 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 52% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 85% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $170k implies a 143% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 10.0% in Detroit — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.