3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,112 sqft ·
Built 1978
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 62 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,812/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,390
Tax + insurance
−$195
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,010
Net cashflow
$2,216/mo
Annual
$26,595/yr
Cap rate
16.33%
Cash-on-cash
35.84%
DSCR
2.59
1% rule
1.82%
Cash to close
$74,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($27k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $265k).
It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $249k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,065 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 529 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $135k; list at $265k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $74k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,812/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) (locally 498% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-9ACT88EVVEH3YZ
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29