2219 Lodge Farm Rd

Edgemere, MD 21219

$375,000C-

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,464 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$494
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$766
• Net cashflow: $423/mo
• Annual: $5,074/yr
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.83%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $365k (2.7% below list).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $352k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#330 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $225k; list at $375k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.6% in Edgemere — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.