219 Vine Cir

Loretto, TN 38469

$89,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Active · 403 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $848/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax + insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $131/mo
• Annual: $1,575/yr
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.32%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $24,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (4.7% below list).
• It's been on market 403 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $727 appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#86 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Lawrence County (rural): math 29% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #67 of 139 in TN (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: South Lawrence Elementary (math 34% / reading 30%, grade F, #369 of 952 statewide, top 42%, 540 students, 0% FRL); Loretto High School (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #183 of 332 statewide, top 59%, 493 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lawrence County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $89k implies a 431% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 403 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.