6615 Lake Clf

San Antonio, TX 78244

$137,000C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,449 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,696/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$718
• Tax + insurance: −$384
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $237/mo
• Annual: $2,843/yr
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.41%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $38,360

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $137k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $137k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $947 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Judson ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #660 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Woodlake El (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 655 students, 78% FRL); Karen Wagner H S (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 2,366 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 57% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 193 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.